Toyota Motor Corp., Asia’s biggest carmaker, forecast profit will more than double to a five-year high as it shakes off last year’s natural disasters and introduces new models to regain market share.

Net income may increase to 760 billion yen ($9.5 billion) in the fiscal year ending March 2013, after falling to 283.6 billion yen, the Toyota City, Japan-based carmaker said today. The profit forecast was 7 percent below the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg, while the company projected higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda, 56, is rolling out new Prius hybrids, Corolla compacts and Lexus sedans to regain lost ground in what may be his first crisis-free year since becoming president in 2009. While production has returned to normal, the grandson of the founder now faces a reborn General Motors Co. that’s leading the industry in global sales, a rising Hyundai Motor Co. and a growing Volkswagen AG that’s dominating luxury- car sales in China.

The earnings show “they have strong confidence of improving profits and regaining market share, mainly in the U.S. but other markets as well,” said Kunihiko Shiohara, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo. “It’s going to give quite a favorable impression on the auto industry as a whole, as well as impressions on the Japanese economy.”

Toyota rose as much as 0.8 percent in Frankfurt trading after the revenue forecast of 22 trillion yen was 6 percent higher than the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. The projection for operating profit of 1 trillion yen was in line with expectations.

The company reported results after the close of trading in Tokyo, where Toyota shares have gained 23 percent this year, outperforming Nissan Motor Co., Honda Motor Co. and GM.

The maker of Corolla and Camry sedans said that deliveries — including those of its Daihatsu Motor Co. and Hino Motors Ltd. subsidiaries — will increase 18 percent to 8.7 million vehicles this fiscal year, led by North America, where sales will climb 26 percent to 2.35 million units. They’ll increase 6.2 percent in Japan, 34 percent in the rest of Asia and 10 percent in Europe Toyota said.

The recovery began last quarter, with net income more than quadrupling to 121 billion yen as Toyota cranked up production 36 percent and the Japanese market became profitable for the first time in more than two years. The yen, which appreciated and eroded the value of Japanese exports during 2010 and 2011, became this year’s worst performer by the end of March.

The rebound wasn’t enough to keep full-year income from tumbling 31 percent as the March 11 Japanese disaster and subsequent floods in Thailand crippled automotive output. Toyota wasn’t alone as Tokyo-based Honda last month reported annual profit fell 60 percent and Yokohama, Japan-based Nissan, which reports May 11, has said since February that net income would slide 7.9 percent in the year ended March 2012.

Toyota, saddled with the highest proportion of Japanese production among the nation’s three largest carmakers, is slower than Nissan and Honda in recovering. While Toyota is forecasting it’s operating profit margin to reach 4.5 percent this fiscal year, Honda expects to reach 6 percent and analysts estimate Nissan to hit 7.2 percent.

“We know Toyota is slow in taking action but it’s about time for them to answer how long they will stick to Japanese production at the expense of being profitable and globally competitive,” said Yuuki Sakurai, chief executive officer at Fukoku Capital Management Inc. in Tokyo. “It’s one lap behind other carmakers.”

Still, Toyota’s projections indicate it will earn more than GM, which last week reported net income fell 61 percent to $1.32 billion on losses and restructuring costs in Europe. Analysts estimate the Detroit-based company will earn $7.38 billion over the next four quarters, excluding preferred dividends, which last year totaled $1.61 billion.

After ceding its title as the world’s largest automaker to GM in 2011, not much is going wrong for Toyota in its two biggest markets this year.

Pent-up demand and government subsidies, which last until January, have helped Japan grow faster than any other major auto market this year. Passenger-vehicle sales in the country have jumped 57 percent during the first four months of 2012, led by Toyota’s Prius hybrids, according to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. That benefited Toyota as it generated 60 percent of its revenue from Japan last fiscal year.

The reliance on its home market may decline as Toyota forecast its deliveries to North America will overtake those of Japan this fiscal year. Toyota’s sales in the U.S. have increased 12 percent this year — outpacing GM, Ford Motor Co., Nissan and Honda — on demand for the Camry sedan and the Prius hybrids, as buyers who put off purchases returned to dealerships to find more fuel-efficient models.

Total U.S. light-vehicle sales, which rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14.4 million in April, have exceeded analysts’ estimates three out of four months this year.
In Europe and China, where auto sales fell during the first quarter, Toyota has been less vulnerable to slumping demand because it is less reliant on those markets than companies such as PSA Peugeot Citroen and GM. Toyota, which had a global market share of about 10 percent in 2011, accounted for 3.2 percent of Europe’s market and 4.3 percent in China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Toyota made about half of its vehicles in Japan in the year ended March, making it more vulnerable to a stronger yen than its nearest rivals. Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s second-biggest carmaker, built a quarter of its vehicles in Japan and Honda Motor Co. about 30 percent.

Toyota is basing this year’s profit forecasts on an exchange rate of 80 yen to the dollar and 105 yen to the euro. The stronger yen cut operating profit by 250 billion yen in the year ended March 31, Toyota said today. The company plans to increase research and development spending 3.9 percent to 810 billion yen and capital expenditure 16 percent.

For Toyoda, the natural disasters followed the crisis he oversaw during 2009 and 2010, when defects related to unintended acceleration led to the recall of more than 10 million vehicles — more than Toyota has sold in its best year.

“We want this year to be a calm year,” Toyoda said today. “It’s only been five months, but we expect everyone’s efforts to shine this year.”

DETROIT – Toyota made a big comeback last month after two years of struggles in the United States, helping the auto industry post its best April results in four years, new figures showed on Tuesday.

Toyota’s sales in the American market increased 12 percent in April, and its market share climbed to 15 percent, the highest point in 17 months, according to The New York Times.

Over all, industry sales rose 2 percent.

Toyota more than doubled sales of its Prius hybrid from a year ago, when prices surged and availability plunged after the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan. It came within about 1,600 units of outselling the Ford Motor Company, whose sales fell 5 percent.

General Motors had a down month as well, with sales falling 8 percent and its market share dipping to 18 percent from 20.1 percent in April 2011. Having spent the last two years stealing customers from Toyota — first as the Japanese automaker dealt with huge recalls and then after last year’s disasters knocked out much of its production — Detroit will clearly have its hands full again this year, analysts said.

“Toyota’s recovery is ‘mission accomplished,’ much earlier than we thought,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president for industry trends and insight at the automotive research Web site TrueCar.com. “Their buyers are evidently more loyal than we thought.”

Sales increased 20 percent for Chrysler, a slowdown from its recent pace of growth.

Nissan’s sales were flat, and Honda’s fell 2 percent.

Volkswagen reported a 27 percent increase.

Hyundai, Subaru and Mercedes each set company records for April.

G.M. and Ford attributed their declines to fewer selling days this April and reductions in deliveries to car rental companies. But they are also suddenly up against tougher competition from Toyota, which has recently introduced two additional versions of the Prius and a redesigned Camry — the country’s top-selling midsize sedan.

Robert S. Carter, a Toyota group vice president, said those two nameplates were increasingly drawing in buyers new to the brand. But, Mr. Carter said, Toyota is still ramping up production of the Camry and Prius, causing dealers to lose out on some sales.

“Frankly, if we had more Priuses and more Camrys, there’s a bit more volume out there for us,” Mr. Carter said in a conference call with reporters. “We’re having the largest year that we’ve ever had in our history with new product launches.”

Toyota’s performance has surprised many analysts in that it has regained its lost market share without offering big discounts, as carmakers traditionally have done when recovering from a tough period. In fact, Toyota spent less on incentives last month than it did a year ago.

Honda, which also is working to rebound from a bad 2011, increased its discounts significantly with little to show for it. Honda’s incentives as a percentage of vehicle prices reached a record in April, according to TrueCar.

Toyota “did this by the virtue of their products,” Mr. Toprak said. “They’re spending significantly less on incentives than Honda, and Honda hasn’t been able to recover as well.”

Despite its sales decline, G.M. said it was raising its forecast for total industry sales in 2012 by 500,000 vehicles, to a range of 14 million to 14.5 million. Auto sales last surpassed 14 million in 2007.

“We expect gradual improvement in the economy going forward,” Don Johnson, G.M.’s vice president for United States sales operations, said in a statement. “Over time, strength in the manufacturing sector and strong retail sales will lead to more job creation. That will help more consumers put the recession behind them, gain even more confidence and drive vehicle sales higher for both the industry and G.M.”

For the first time this year, gasoline prices ended the month lower than they started it. On Tuesday, the national average price of regular gas was $3.809 a gallon, down from $3.925 a month ago and $3.943 a year ago, according to the AAA motor club.

Gas prices near $4 a gallon have prompted some consumers to buy smaller vehicles, but are not causing overall sales to decline, as happened when prices rose sharply in 2008. Analysts said consumers were increasingly viewing high gas prices as a reason to trade in their current vehicle for a more efficient one.

“Rising gas prices are actually accelerating rather than discouraging new car purchases, as new vehicles have significantly better fuel economy,” Peter Nesvold, an analyst with Jefferies & Company, wrote in a research note.

April had three fewer selling days, excluding Sundays and holidays, than it did a year ago. That much disparity has happened only twice in the last decade, and fewer selling days make it more difficult for automakers to match or exceed their year-ago results.

DETROIT – Toyota Motor Corp. gave U.S. sales chief Jim Lentz the additional title of CEO in a shuffle of North American leadership.

Lentz takes on the chief executive role April 1 while remaining president of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A., the automaker said in a statement today, according to Automotive News. Lentz, 56, who joined the automaker 30 years ago, is the first American to hold the CEO title, Toyota said.

In other changes also taking effect next month:

• Shigeki Terashi will become president and COO of Toyota Motor North America, replacing Yoshi Inaba. Terashi will remain president of Toyota Motor Engineering and Manufacturing, North America.
• Inaba, 66, will stay in the United States as chairman of Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. He will also keep his post on Toyota’s North American executive committee “to support Mr. Terashi in his new role.”
• Massy Tomozoe, senior vice president of North America business planning, will take a “senior management position” in Japan. The assignment has yet to be announced.

Toyota Motor Corporation announced various global leadership changes today, including the naming of Shigeki Terashi as president and COO of Toyota Motor North America, Inc. effective April 1.

In this new role, Mr. Terashi will be Toyota’s chief regional officer for North America, and will chair Toyota’s cross-affiliate North American Executive Committee.

Mr. Terashi, who will also retain his current position as president of Toyota Motor Engineering and Manufacturing, North America, Inc., joined Toyota in 1980 in the body engineering design division and began by working on the Camry project. Before being named president of TEMA last year, Mr. Terashi led the Toyota Technical Center and oversaw the development and launch of the Venza, Sienna and other key products in North America.

Other North American changes announced today, also effective April 1, include:

• Yoshi Inaba, currently president and COO of TMA, will remain on Toyota’s North American Executive Committee to support Mr. Terashi in his new role, but will be moving back to Toyota Motor Sales, USA, Inc. , to focus mainly on his role as Chairman of TMS.
• Jim Lentz, currently president and COO of TMS, will become president and CEO of TMS. Mr. Lentz is the first American to be named CEO of TMS.
• Massy Tomozoe, previously senior vice president of North America business planning and chief coordinating officer for TMA, will return to Japan to accept a senior management position, which will be announced at a later date.

Under Mr. Terashi’s leadership, Toyota’s North American Executive Committee will continue to meet monthly. Other members of the Executive Committee include: Yoshi Inaba, Dian Ogilvie, George Borst, Jim Lentz, Kazuhiro Miyauchi, Ray Tanguay and Steve St. Angelo.

A two-year study looking for possible causes behind Toyota’s rash of unintended acceleration issues has put primary blame on driver error — but the review by the National Academy of Sciences also cautioned that some problems may have been caused by inadvertent interactions involving vehicle electronics — an issue frequently cited by the automaker’s critics.

Though there was no hard evidence of specific electronic defects, the 139-page report cautioned that “the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.” Warning electronic faults may be “untraceable,” it calls for stricter government involvement in setting standards for the use of electronic control vehicle systems, reported msnbc.com.

The new report completes a series of studies set in motion by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration which, in March 2010, asked both the NAS’s National Research Council, as well as NASA, to see why there were so many complaints about what the media was referring to as “runaway Toyotas.”

The problem first made headlines in the summer of 2009, when a California Highway Patrol Officer and several members of his family were killed in a fiery crash involving a Lexus they had borrowed. The maker initially recalled several million vehicles due to a problem it described as “carpet entrapment,” but in January 2010 it added millions more due to a potentially sticky accelerator linkage.

Ultimately, more than 8 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles were recalled in the U.S. alone. But the NHTSA received numerous additional complaints — with plaintiffs’ attorneys lining up to file lawsuits against the automaker — alleging some unknown electronic gremlin was also at work.

Last February, the NASA panel issued its report, contending it had found no indication of electronic defects. The National Research Council study echoes that, putting the primary blame on driver error. That had been the conclusion of other investigators in a number of instances — in one, police investigators found that a woman driver involved in a crash had been pressing on the gas pedal, rather than the brake, so hard she had bent its linkage.

Nonetheless, the latest study does not rule out electronic issues, which it cautioned can result in “untraceable faults,” with no physical evidence — other than a crash — to show when there might have been a problem such as a momentary software glitch.

“Some failures of software and other faults in electronics systems do not leave physical evidence of their occurrence, which can complicate assessment of the causes of unusual behaviors in the modern, electronics-intensive automobile,” the report cautioned.

Nonetheless, Louis Lanzerotti, the chairman of the panel and a New Jersey Institute of Technology physics professor, said during a conference call that, “All the data available to us indicated the conclusion that there was no electronic or software problem” that may have caused the Toyota unintended acceleration reports.”

The new study called for a number of steps to be taken to reduce the likelihood that electronic hardware and software do cause problems in the future – a critical issue considering the increasing use of digital technology in modern automobiles. Among the recommendations:

• NHTSA should convene an advisory panel to set uniform industry testing standards for electronic systems;
• New vehicles should be equipped with aircraft-style black boxes to make it easier to trace and identify defects;
• Regulators need to continue research on pedal design and placement.
The study also called for closer cooperation between NHTSA’s researchers and the Transportation Department’s Office of Defect Investigations.

While some critics questioned the latest study — as they did earlier NHTSA and NASA findings, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said that in his eyes the latest report “does close the book” on the Toyota scandal.

At one point, following the second unintended acceleration recall, LaHood had said owners of Toyota vehicles involved in the recalls might think about parking those products until they were repaired.

The NHTSA ultimately levied a series of record fines against Toyota, including one for $33 million for delaying action on the sticky accelerator problem.

The maker, long known for seemingly bullet-proof quality, also recalled products in 2009, 2010 and 2011 for a variety of other issues, ranging from electronic brake issues with its Prius hybrid to excessive corrosion that could cause metal parts to fell off while driving the Sienna minivan.

As a result, Toyota had more recalls than any other maker in the U.S. market in 2009 and 2010, and with 3.5 million vehicles involved in service campaigns in 2011, came in just behind Honda, which last year recalled 3.7 million vehicles.

The long-term impact to the company’s reputation is unclear. Toyota — along with Honda — was one of only two major makers to suffer a sales decline in 2011. Analysts put most of the blame on the March earthquake and tsunami that severely limited global production for much of the year, but they also note cool consumer response to the latest update of the Toyota Camry at the same time as competitors like Ford are becoming increasingly aggressive in market segments long dominated by Toyota.

A new study by KBB.com shows that Toyota has regained its long-standing position as having the highest loyalty rate in the industry. But the maker is still heavily dependent on “conquesting” buyers from other brands. That, many analysts warn, could become more difficult in light of the hits Toyota’s reputation has taken.

Toyota Motor Corp. scored a victory in 2011 as U.S. deliveries of its Prius v wagon in 10 weeks topped sales of General Motors Co.’s Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid that was available all year.

Toyota sold 8,399 of the hybrid wagon, which didn’t arrive at U.S. dealerships until the last week of October, said Carly Schaffner, a spokeswoman for the company. GM delivered 7,671 rechargeable Volts in 2011 and 7,997 in the model’s first 13 months on the market. The Japanese automaker hadn’t distinguished Prius v sales from those of the original one, reported Bloomberg.

“Prius v is off to a great start,” Jim Lentz, president of Toyota’s U.S. sales unit, said in an e-mail this week. The hybrid wagon starts at $26,400, Toyota said on its website. The Volt starts at $39,145 and is eligible for as much as $7,500 in federal tax credits.

Toyota, the largest gasoline-electric auto seller, wants to deliver more than 220,000 vehicles bearing the Prius name this year to U.S. customers, a 60 percent increase from 2011. That’s to be fueled by a four-car “family” consisting of the original hatchback, the v, the Prius c subcompact arriving in March, and a plug-in Prius that goes about 15 miles on battery power.

GM missed its goal of selling 10,000 Volts last year. A slow production increase kept dealers for the Detroit-based company in short supply until December, and a federal investigation of three fires that occurred after Volt crash tests lowered demand for the car, according to Bandon, Oregon- based CNW Marketing Research Inc.

Comparing the plug-in Volt with the hybrid wagon is “ridiculous,” said Rob Peterson, a GM spokesman.

“Consumers cross-shop vehicles with comparable technologies or functionality, not a new name plate,” Peterson said by e-mail. “Comparing Volt to Prius v is apples and oranges.”

The range of alternative-power autos available to U.S. drivers is mushrooming as manufacturers offer vehicles powered wholly or in part by electricity, bio-fuels, natural gas and even hydrogen. That number will jump this year with new offerings required to meet clean air rules in California.

Bloomberg News tracked sales of 37 such vehicles in 2011, up from only two in 2000. Offerings include the Prius, the Volt, Nissan Motor Co.’s Leaf and Honda Motor Co.’s FCX Clarity fuel- cell sedan leased in California.

Hybrid sales accounted for only 2.2 percent of U.S. auto sales last year, down from 2.4 percent in 2010, according to researcher LMC Automotive. The decline was a result of reduced production of the Prius, which accounts for half of all hybrid sales, after Japan’s natural disasters cut the supply of parts, said Lentz, who is based at Toyota’s U.S. sales office in Torrance, California.

The March 2011 earthquake and tsunami temporarily halted Prius assembly in Japan, leaving U.S. dealers with little inventory of the car for months. Overall Prius sales fell 3.2 percent last year to 136,463.

Toyota dealers in the U.S. also sold 9,241 hybrid midsize Camry cars, 37 percent fewer than in 2010, according to Autodata Corp., and the Toyota City, Japan-based automaker said it delivered 14,381 Lexus CT200h gas-electric compact luxury wagons in the model’s first calendar year.

Nissan sold 9,674 Leaf all-electric cars in the U.S. last year, missing its target of 10,000 to 12,000. The company said production lost to the tsunami limited availability. The Leaf averages about 73 miles per charge, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The Prius v wagon, larger and heavier than a standard Prius, averages 42 miles per gallon of gasoline in combined city and highway driving, compared with 50 mpg for the main version. The Volt, capable of going 35 miles on battery power, has two U.S. fuel-economy ratings: 94 mpg-equivalent when both its lithium-ion pack and gasoline engine are used, and a combined 37 mpg when powered solely by gasoline.

Toyota Motor Corp. survived a massive recall two years ago and the effects of Japan’s tsunami last year. Now the company faces an unprecedented rush of competitors for its franchise car, the Camry family sedan.

The Camry, the best-selling mid-size car in the U.S. for the past 10 years, faces new family-sedan competition this year from Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. Volkswagen AG, Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. have raised production of their family cars, making the market even more competitive, according to Bloomberg.

Add it all up and the mid-size car market is as tough as it has ever been, even for a dominant franchise like the Camry. Family cars represent 15 percent of the U.S. market and a vital way to reach new buyers and keep them in their brands for years beyond the first purchase.

“There has never been anything like this before,” said Jeremy Anwyl, vice chairman of Edmunds.com, an automotive research website based in Santa Monica, California. “We have had competitive races with two or three new models, but not seven or eight competitive cars fighting it out.”

This year, Ford brings out its new Fusion sedan, with two hybrid versions of the car. GM’s top-selling Chevrolet division started delivering the redesigned Malibu this month. Honda showed off a coupe version of its Accord at the Detroit auto show this week and will sell the new car later this year. Nissan has a new Altima coming as well.

On top of that, Kia has added a third shift to its U.S. plant to increase production of the Optima sedan. Hyundai last year boosted production at its Montgomery, Alabama, plant to 10 percent more than its official capacity. Volkswagen is now up to full output at its $1 billion Chattanooga, Tennessee, factory that began producing Passat sedans last spring.

“We haven’t seen anything like this since back in the ‘90s, when Ford made a push with the Taurus,” said Jim Lentz, president of Toyota’s U.S. sales arm.

Mid-size car production in North America may rise 15 percent, or 305,000, to 2.4 million vehicles this year, according to a forecast from LMC Automotive, a research firm based in Oxford, England. Most of those cars stay in the U.S., where sales are expected to rise by 100,000 to 200,000 vehicles, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president with LMC.

“There will be pricing pressure,” Anwyl said. Carmakers used to be able to rely on keeping prices up and avoiding incentives for a year or more with a new model, Anwyl said. With this kind of competition, carmakers may have as little as three months before discounts are needed, he said.

Ford has big ambitions for the new Fusion. The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker is adding a shift of workers to make the car at a factory in nearby Flat Rock, adding to the two shifts of workers building it in Hermosillo, Mexico. Sales of the Fusion rose 37 percent from two years earlier to 248,067 last year, Ford reported. The new hybrid version will get 47 mpg in the city, up from 41 for the previous one. The Camry hybrid gets 43 mpg in city driving.

“Fusion last year set a sales record, and with this new family of vehicles, we believe we can build on that success,” Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally said Jan. 9 when asked if Fusion can be the top selling mid-size car. “I think we really will be preferred in that” mid-size car segment.

GM is also adding production by using its Chevy Volt plant in Detroit as a second source of Malibus, in addition to the primary factory in Fairfax, Kansas.

With so many new models entering the family-car market, it will be a challenge for anyone to stand out, said Joel Ewanick, GM vice president and chief marketing officer. Chevy will offer an Eco version of the Malibu that can get 37 mpg on the highway with a small, inexpensive electric motor and battery mated to a 4-cylinder engine.

Honda said it hopes to sell more than 300,000 Accords in the U.S. this year, which would be a 27 percent jump over 2011. The increase will come from both the current Accord and the redesigned model due in the second half, said John Mendel, executive vice president of the company’s U.S. sales unit.

Mendel said that fresh styling and new engines and transmissions will bring Honda back after production cuts forced by the Japan tsunami in March caused losses in market share.

“A few people have taken us to task and enjoyed our absence from the market,” Mendel said in an interview in Detroit. “I think we’re going to enjoy being back.”

Honda could be hurt in the family-sedan market because the new Camry was introduced in the fourth quarter while the new Accord is still months away, said Mike O’Brien, Hyundai’s vice president for U.S. product development.

“In terms of model cycles, Toyota realizes this is their year to capture share from Honda because Accord is old and Camry is new,” O’Brien said in a Jan. 11 interview. “There’s going to be a big battle between those two, and there is going to be collateral damage. Toyota is going to be very aggressive on marketing.”

The company is determined to keep its top spot.

“It will be a heated segment in the industry, but we’re extremely confident about the new Camry,” said Bob Carter, general manager of Toyota brand sales in the U.S. “Mark my words: One year from now, Camry will repeat as the best-selling car in America for an eleventh consecutive year.”