Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest automaker, raised its profit and global unit-sales forecasts after boosting net income by almost four times in the last quarter, Bloomberg reported.

Nissan expects 270 billion yen ($3.3 billion) profit in the year ending March, compared with an earlier forecast of 150 billion yen, the Yokohama-based company said. The carmaker posted 102 billion yen in net income for the three months ended Sept. 30 as sales rose to 2.27 trillion yen from 1.87 trillion yen a year earlier.

“Nissan’s forecasts exceed the market’s consensus and its own guidance,” said Mitsuo Shimizu, an analyst at Cosmo Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Amid concerns about the global auto industry, investors may react positively to Nissan’s performance.”

The maker of the Juke compact crossover follows Honda Motor Co. in raising its profit outlook even as the yen trades near a 15-year high against the dollar, reducing the value of overseas earnings. While Nissan expects to benefit from trimming purchasing costs and the introduction of new cars such as its all-electric Leaf compact, the yen will weigh on earnings during the second half, the company said.

Nissan rose 3.9 percent to 721 yen at the 3 p.m. close of trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, before the earnings announcement. The shares have fallen 10 percent this year.

The automaker raised its full-year vehicle sales target and now expects to sell 4.1 million units from an earlier target of 3.8 million.

Nissan will also benefit from introducing 10 new models this fiscal year including the Leaf, Micra and Juke compact cars, Chief Operating Officer Toshiyuki Shiga, told reporters in Yokohama.

Even so, the company estimates net income growth may slow during the remainder of the fiscal year. Based on today’s revised forecast, Nissan may post profit of 62 billion yen during the six months through March 30. That estimate would be more than two-thirds lower than the fiscal first-half profit of 208 billion yen, according to its statement today.

The strength of the yen which reduced first-half operating profit by 55 billion yen, may cut earnings by 130 billion yen during the second, Nissan said today.

The company today revised its full-year exchange-rate assumption to 84.4 yen to the dollar from an earlier forecast of 90 yen. The company expects the yen to average 80 yen against the dollar in the fiscal second-half, it said.

The dollar traded at 80.97 yen as of 5:07 p.m. in Tokyo after strengthening to 80.22 yen on Nov. 1, the lowest level since April 1995.

Nissan also faces a demand drop in Japan after a government subsidy program ended and an unclear outlook in the U.S., where near 10 percent unemployment forced the Federal Reserve to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries.

“Nissan faces a very difficult situation at home,” said Yuuki Sakurai, who helps oversee the equivalent of $8.7 billion as chief executive officer and president at Fukoku Capital Management Inc. in Tokyo. In the U.S., “quantitative easing won’t necessarily lead to an improved economy if people are hesitating to borrow because they’re worried they won’t be able to repay.”

After Japan’s government subsidy program for fuel-efficient cars ended Sept. 8, Nissan’s deliveries in October plunged 31 percent. Sales in its domestic market rose 15.3 percent in the fiscal first half.

To boost sales, Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn started selling an updated March compact this year. Nissan has shifted Japan production of the model to Thailand, which helps the company reduce impact of the strong yen on exports to other countries in the region.

Nissan’s Shiga today said the automaker also plans to cut purchasing costs by 185 billion yen to offset the yen.

The company will begin selling its Leaf electric car next month in Japan, U.S. and some countries in Europe. Nissan and partner Renault SA plan to have capacity to build 500,000 electric cars a year by 2012.

Porsche SE improved its full-year forecast after the carmaking division’s sales beat analysts’ estimates as the new Panamera sedan attracted buyers, Bloomberg reported.

The loss for the year ending July 31 will be less than 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion), the maker of the 911 sports-car said in a statement. That compares with a “low single-digit” billion-euro loss forecast on March 17. Nine-month sales by the car-manufacturing unit rose 12 percent to 5.2 billion euros, while the operating profit was 600 million euros.

“These are good numbers,” said Daniel Schwarz, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who has a “reduce” recommendation on the stock. “The Panamera is proving a boon to Porsche’s car business. They’re doing better than expected.”

The company, which took a majority stake in Volkswagen AG in January 2009, posted its first net loss since 1994 last year because of writedowns on the value of options on shares of Europe’s biggest carmaker following a failed hostile takeover. Volkswagen turned around and acquired 49.9 percent of Stuttgart, Germany-based Porsche’s carmaking business in December.

Porsche rose as much as 1.04 euros, or 3 percent, to 35.64 euros and was up 2.1 percent as of 11:58 a.m. in Frankfurt trading, valuing the carmaker at 6.2 billion euros.

Nine-month deliveries declined 0.1 percent from a year earlier to 53,605 cars and sport-utility vehicles, Porsche said. The company sold 13,906 Panameras in the period. The model, Porsche’s latest and its first car with four doors, cost 1 billion euros to develop and went on sale in Germany last September. Porsche has a fiscal-2010 target of selling 20,000 Panameras, which is priced starting at 94,600 euros.

NEW YORK – Two leading U.S. economists predict a return to more normal economic conditions by the end of 2010, Automotive News reported.

As a result, they forecast U.S. light-vehicle sales will reach 14 million units in 2011 and grow to old levels of 17 million and above by middecade. However, market share among automakers will remain extremely fluid.

“It’s a recovery, but it sure doesn’t feel like one,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for consultancy IHS Global Insight. “Unemployment is still a big factor, but consumers are spending. First-quarter growth was the best in about three years.”

Driving the recovery will be strong growth in exports as well as capital spending on equipment and high-tech. The main drag is lackluster capital spending on nonresidential construction, and there are worries about short-term commercial real estate exposure, Behravesh said at the NADA/IHS Global Insight Automotive Forum in New York.

However, Behravish added that the odds of a double-dip recession are about the same as a recovery that actually exceeds predictions. Corporations and banks are “sitting on a mountain of cash,” it’s just a matter of convincing them to spend and lend it.

Specific to the automotive sector, the sales resurgence will not be driven by a return to the old ways of subprime loans, home equity-driven purchases and an overabundance of cheap leases. Already there is a recovery in delinquency rates.

Rather, the sheer force of demographic trends will trigger a return to more robust sales, said George Magliano, IHS Global Insight director of automotive research.

The surging population of Generation Y is just entering a flaccid job market. But once the economy is rolling, by 2013 about 70 to 75 million young consumers will enter the market. In addition, while scrappage demand may not return to high percentages — thanks to constantly improving quality lengthening the ownership cycle — there is significant pent-up demand that will see more replacement purchases in the near term, Magliano said.

So, who will provide consumers with loans? Already, commercial banks have become very aggressive in auto loan lending, and the industry should look for an increase in zero percent financing, Magliano said.

“We’ve frozen the subprime buyer out of our marketplace,” Magliano said. “We’re never going to get back to the approval rates in 2005 and 2006. First we need jobs, then we can get a little bit looser on the credit.”

In terms of market share, IHS predicts GM, Ford and Toyota will collide at 17 percent share; Honda will grow to 12 percent; and Hyundai-Kia, Nissan and Chrysler will be in the 7 percent range.

But these share numbers are in flux, Magliano said, notably because “nobody has captured the younger generation yet.”

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com analysts predict that January’s new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 701,000 units, and that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) will be 10.7 million, down from 11.2 in December 2009.

This sales forecast represents a 7.1 percent increase from January 2009 but a 31.7 percent decrease from December 2009, according to Edmunds.com. January 2010 had 24 selling days, two less than last January. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 16.0 percent from January 2009. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

“December is generally one of the strongest sales months of the year, while January is typically one of the weakest, and that held true this season,” said Jessica Caldwell, director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. “This month’s sales were buoyed by hefty hikes in fleet sales.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 47.2 percent in January 2010, up from 43.4 percent in January 2009 and up from 46.2 percent in December 2009.

“Toyota’s market share is likely to drop to 14.7 percent in January; the last time it was that low was in March 2006 when its share was 14.2 percent of U.S. sales. In contrast, Ford is expected to have its best month for market share since May 2006. Edmunds.com forecasts Ford’s share at 18.0 percent. The last time it was that high was in May 2006 at 18.4 percent,” noted Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs.

A detailed forecast is available at Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com.

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. — The new-vehicle retail selling rate in January is expected to decline compared with both December 2009 and one year ago, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 franchisees across the United States.

January new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 500,900 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 7.9 million units, compared with 8.8 million units in January 2009. This month’s selling rate is down from 8.9 million units in December 2009 — one of the stronger sales months in 2009, in part due to robust marketing and incentive programs.

“January is typically a weak selling month, but this month is particularly impacted by December’s strong close and extra selling weekend,” said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. “However, the sales pace has been improving as January continues, which is an encouraging sign for the recovering industry.”

Fleet sales are expected to increase substantially from January 2009, which marked the lowest fleet level last year. As a result, total sales for January 2010 are projected to come in at 659,000 units, up 9 percent from January 2009. The January SAAR for total light-vehicle sales is expected to increase to 10.1 million units, compared with 9.6 million units one year ago.

J.D. Power and Associates U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons – January 2010

¹ Figures cited for January 2010 are forecasted numbers based on the first 11 selling days of the month.
² The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days (24 days vs. 26 days one year ago).

J.D. Power and Associates is maintaining its 2010 forecast at 11.5 million units for total sales and 9.5 million units for retail sales. However, with improved leasing availability, loosening credit and healthier economic conditions, the industry’s recovery could be more pronounced.

Vehicle inventory is currently at a 53-day supply, compared with 94 days in January 2009. The improved inventory level, combined with growing demand, is leading to increases in North American vehicle production in the first quarter of 2010. Production is expected to increase by nearly 70 percent to 2.8 million units during the first three months of 2010, compared with 1.7 million units during the same period one year ago.

“While North American production remains well below historic levels, the near-term boost will provide much-needed support to the automotive supply base,” said Schuster. “Year-over-year increases are expected to continue throughout 2010, resulting in a projected 2 million-unit increase, compared with 2009 levels.”