Toyota Motor Corp., Asia’s biggest carmaker, forecast profit will more than double to a five-year high as it shakes off last year’s natural disasters and introduces new models to regain market share.

Net income may increase to 760 billion yen ($9.5 billion) in the fiscal year ending March 2013, after falling to 283.6 billion yen, the Toyota City, Japan-based carmaker said today. The profit forecast was 7 percent below the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg, while the company projected higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda, 56, is rolling out new Prius hybrids, Corolla compacts and Lexus sedans to regain lost ground in what may be his first crisis-free year since becoming president in 2009. While production has returned to normal, the grandson of the founder now faces a reborn General Motors Co. that’s leading the industry in global sales, a rising Hyundai Motor Co. and a growing Volkswagen AG that’s dominating luxury- car sales in China.

The earnings show “they have strong confidence of improving profits and regaining market share, mainly in the U.S. but other markets as well,” said Kunihiko Shiohara, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo. “It’s going to give quite a favorable impression on the auto industry as a whole, as well as impressions on the Japanese economy.”

Toyota rose as much as 0.8 percent in Frankfurt trading after the revenue forecast of 22 trillion yen was 6 percent higher than the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. The projection for operating profit of 1 trillion yen was in line with expectations.

The company reported results after the close of trading in Tokyo, where Toyota shares have gained 23 percent this year, outperforming Nissan Motor Co., Honda Motor Co. and GM.

The maker of Corolla and Camry sedans said that deliveries — including those of its Daihatsu Motor Co. and Hino Motors Ltd. subsidiaries — will increase 18 percent to 8.7 million vehicles this fiscal year, led by North America, where sales will climb 26 percent to 2.35 million units. They’ll increase 6.2 percent in Japan, 34 percent in the rest of Asia and 10 percent in Europe Toyota said.

The recovery began last quarter, with net income more than quadrupling to 121 billion yen as Toyota cranked up production 36 percent and the Japanese market became profitable for the first time in more than two years. The yen, which appreciated and eroded the value of Japanese exports during 2010 and 2011, became this year’s worst performer by the end of March.

The rebound wasn’t enough to keep full-year income from tumbling 31 percent as the March 11 Japanese disaster and subsequent floods in Thailand crippled automotive output. Toyota wasn’t alone as Tokyo-based Honda last month reported annual profit fell 60 percent and Yokohama, Japan-based Nissan, which reports May 11, has said since February that net income would slide 7.9 percent in the year ended March 2012.

Toyota, saddled with the highest proportion of Japanese production among the nation’s three largest carmakers, is slower than Nissan and Honda in recovering. While Toyota is forecasting it’s operating profit margin to reach 4.5 percent this fiscal year, Honda expects to reach 6 percent and analysts estimate Nissan to hit 7.2 percent.

“We know Toyota is slow in taking action but it’s about time for them to answer how long they will stick to Japanese production at the expense of being profitable and globally competitive,” said Yuuki Sakurai, chief executive officer at Fukoku Capital Management Inc. in Tokyo. “It’s one lap behind other carmakers.”

Still, Toyota’s projections indicate it will earn more than GM, which last week reported net income fell 61 percent to $1.32 billion on losses and restructuring costs in Europe. Analysts estimate the Detroit-based company will earn $7.38 billion over the next four quarters, excluding preferred dividends, which last year totaled $1.61 billion.

After ceding its title as the world’s largest automaker to GM in 2011, not much is going wrong for Toyota in its two biggest markets this year.

Pent-up demand and government subsidies, which last until January, have helped Japan grow faster than any other major auto market this year. Passenger-vehicle sales in the country have jumped 57 percent during the first four months of 2012, led by Toyota’s Prius hybrids, according to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. That benefited Toyota as it generated 60 percent of its revenue from Japan last fiscal year.

The reliance on its home market may decline as Toyota forecast its deliveries to North America will overtake those of Japan this fiscal year. Toyota’s sales in the U.S. have increased 12 percent this year — outpacing GM, Ford Motor Co., Nissan and Honda — on demand for the Camry sedan and the Prius hybrids, as buyers who put off purchases returned to dealerships to find more fuel-efficient models.

Total U.S. light-vehicle sales, which rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14.4 million in April, have exceeded analysts’ estimates three out of four months this year.
In Europe and China, where auto sales fell during the first quarter, Toyota has been less vulnerable to slumping demand because it is less reliant on those markets than companies such as PSA Peugeot Citroen and GM. Toyota, which had a global market share of about 10 percent in 2011, accounted for 3.2 percent of Europe’s market and 4.3 percent in China, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Toyota made about half of its vehicles in Japan in the year ended March, making it more vulnerable to a stronger yen than its nearest rivals. Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s second-biggest carmaker, built a quarter of its vehicles in Japan and Honda Motor Co. about 30 percent.

Toyota is basing this year’s profit forecasts on an exchange rate of 80 yen to the dollar and 105 yen to the euro. The stronger yen cut operating profit by 250 billion yen in the year ended March 31, Toyota said today. The company plans to increase research and development spending 3.9 percent to 810 billion yen and capital expenditure 16 percent.

For Toyoda, the natural disasters followed the crisis he oversaw during 2009 and 2010, when defects related to unintended acceleration led to the recall of more than 10 million vehicles — more than Toyota has sold in its best year.

“We want this year to be a calm year,” Toyoda said today. “It’s only been five months, but we expect everyone’s efforts to shine this year.”

DETROIT – Ford Motor Co. is likely to lose market share this year in the U.S., the first decline since 2008, the company’s head of North and South America said Wednesday.

Despite a market-share loss, Ford should generate higher than previously thought margins and profit in North America, Americas chief Mark Fields said at an investor’s presentation hosted by Bank of America .

Ford raised its forecast for U.S. industry sales to between 14.5 million and 15 million vehicles, including sales of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, up from its previous target range of 13.5 million to 14.5 million, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Fields said capacity constraints because of the faster-than-expected growth may lead to the lower market share for Ford, but could also mean higher pricing and margins for its vehicles.

Ford gained market share in the U.S. for three straight years, touching 16.8 percent in 2011, after hitting a low of 14.4 percent in 2008. But in the first quarter of 2012, its share is off 0.8 percentage point compared with a year earlier. The company changed its forecast of a stable share to a declining share.

Ford this week reported that its U.S. sales rose 5 percent in March and that it had record deliveries of its compact Focus compact as well as strong sales of its full-sized F-series pickups.

Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest automaker, reported record 2011 profit as demand increased for Audi and VW sport-utility vehicles.

Earnings before interest and taxes advanced 58 percent to 11.3 billion euros ($15.1 billion), the Wolfsburg, Germany-based carmaker said in a statement today. Profit matched the 11.3 billion-euro average estimate of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Revenue gained 26 percent to 159 billion euros.

Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn is adding factories in a bid to surpass General Motors Co. as the world’s biggest carmaker. VW, which delivered a record 8.27 million vehicles in 2011, aims for sales growth this year outpacing the market’s expansion. The German company has expanded production of SUVs such as the VW Tiguan and Audi Q5 to meet high demand in the U.S. and China, its largest market.

“There’s not a real positive surprise, so there might be some disappointment,” said Juergen Pieper, a Frankfurt-based analyst with Bankhaus Metzler. “The quality of the earnings is probably better, but more explanation is needed.”

The stock rose 10 cents, or 0.1 percent, to 139.25 euros in Frankfurt trading today. The shares have gained 20 percent this year, valuing the carmaker at 61 billion euros.

Volkswagen raised the dividend for 2011 by 35 percent to 3.06 euros per preferred share from 2.26 euros a year earlier. The dividend per common share for last year will be 3 euros. The carmaker will release more details on 2011 earnings on March 12.

Future growth may also come from pending mergers. VW is exploring options to combine with majority shareholder Porsche SE after scrapping plans last year for a merger because of legal tangles.

To avoid further delays, VW may drop the full merger and instead buy Porsche’s carmaking business, two people with direct knowledge of the situation said in November. VW already owns 49.9 percent of Porsche’s automaking business and holds an option to purchase the remaining 50.1 percent.

Volkswagen’s 2011 net income was lifted by a gain from the revaluation of the Porsche options. The figure more than doubled to 15.4 billion euros from 7.23 billion euros.

VW last year took a majority stake in German truckmaker MAN SE, raising its holding to 55.9 percent. VW has been seeking closer links between MAN and Soedertaelje, Sweden-based Scania AB, which it also controls, with a goal of forging a three-way truckmaking alliance. Such a tie-up may save as much as 1 billion euros in annual costs, VW has said.

VW’s net liquidity in 2011 dropped 8.6 percent to 17 billion euros because of 7 billion euros in spending on equity investments, including the increase in the MAN stake.

“VW generated a negative cash flow in the fourth quarter,” Michael Punzet, a DZ Bank analyst who recommends buying the shares, said in a note to investors. “In our view, this is mainly related to production cuts at year end and some investments at plants” for a new underbody that will be used as the basis for several vehicles.

Investments in property, plants and equipment in 2011 rose 40 percent to 7.93 billion euros, VW said today.

The maker of the Golf hatchback, VW’s best-selling vehicle, plans to spend a record 62.4 billion euros over the next five years on plants, models, research and development to underpin its global expansion. VW wants to hire more than 50,000 workers through 2018 as it targets more than 10 million autos per year.

Daimler AG this month forecast that operating profit this year will be “in the magnitude” of 2011’s 8.98 billion euros. CEO Dieter Zetsche has vowed to retake the luxury-car lead from Bayerische Motoren Werke AG after slipping last year to third behind Audi. Daimler predicts industrywide auto deliveries will rise 4 percent globally this year.

General Motors Co. reported Thursday the largest annual profit in its 103-year history—but the auto maker is acting like a company on the rocks.

It earned $7.59 billion in 2011, a 62 percent increase from a year ago. The bulk of that profit came from GM’s large North American unit, where sales rose and customers are paying more for its cars and trucks, reported The Wall Street Journal.

Yet even as investors celebrated the gain by pushing GM’s stock up, company executives talked of the urgent need to slash expenses everywhere and to restructure its long-struggling business in Europe. GM shares gained 9 percent in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange trading on Thursday, adding $2.24, to $27.17, a six-month high.

The company, as it rolled out the news, disclosed a series of cost-cutting actions and offered a dire view of Europe’s economy this year. Among its moves, it will reduce 2011 bonuses for its 26,000 U.S. salaried workers and freeze their pay for 2012.

“We obviously have a long way to go to get to the objectives we want to get to,” Dan Ammann, GM’s finance chief, said at the company’s headquarters on Thursday.

GM has undergone a remarkable turnaround from 2009, when it needed a $50 billion lifeline from U.S. taxpayers to survive. Today, its car business is growing fast in China and North America, has little debt and $38.8 billion in liquidity. It also will pay scant U.S. taxes for years to come as a condition of the government rescue.

However, an 8 percent fourth quarter earnings drop underscored challenges it faces this year: Growing losses in Europe and thin profit margins in its overall business despite shedding debt and taxes in bankruptcy court.

On Thursday, Chief Executive Dan Akerson said the company expects sales volumes and revenue to grow in 2012. But when pressed, Mr. Akerson declined to predict whether that means GM will make more money this year.

“It’s tough to make predictions,” he said. “We know what our challenges are and we are addressing them.”

The auto maker lost $747 million in Europe last year. GM initially thought it would be profitable in the region last year, but rescinded its profit forecast last fall amid a regional sales slump triggered by the European debt crisis. Last year’s loss in Europe is narrower than in 2010, when GM lost nearly $2 billion in the region.

Mr. Akerson said the troubles in Europe are on the same scale of the 2008 meltdown in the U.S., which resulted in an $80 billion U.S. auto industry bailout and bankruptcies for GM and Chrysler Group LLC.

Executives are working with labor unions to hammer out a restructuring plan for Europe that will cut capacity and reduce costs in the region, officials said on Thursday. GM in recent months has sent several top executives to Europe and is overhauling the unit’s management.

The company is considering closing factories in Bochum, Germany, and Ellesmere Port, England, according to people familiar with the discussions. GM said on Thursday it would stick to labor agreements that prohibit further plant closings through 2014, signaling any closing won’t happen immediately.

Mr. Ammann, the finance chief, said GM has enough liquidity to manage further losses in its Opel/Vauxhall operations and doesn’t need to seek aid from European governments.

GM is moving to stop cracks from becoming fissures. This week, it disclosed plans to end this year payments to a traditional defined-benefit pension plan for 19,000 salaried workers who still receive them. The move is intended to help reduce its future pension risk. Workers will keep their existing pensions, but future retirement contributions will be made into a 401(k) plan.

Its pension shortfall rose to $24.5 billion at the end of 2011, from $21.4 billion a year earlier mostly because the company has reduced its projection of the future rate of return.

The company also failed to make significant progress on its goal of increasing profit margins. Fourth-quarter profit margin was 2.9 percent of sales, almost unchanged from the 2.8 percent of sales a year earlier. GM executives are working to get margins closer to 10 percent over the next few years. Its margin for the year was 5.5 percent, compared with 5.2 percent in 2010.

Analysts said the company’s lack of comment on its 2012 profit outlook wasn’t enough to change their opinion of its shares.

“A lack of guidance leaves GM shares shrouded in the thick fog of macro uncertainty,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a research note. Still, he said, “We believe investors have little room to feel any different about their 2012 estimate in either direction.”

A strengthening stock price could get the U.S. closer to selling its 26.5 percent stake in the company. GM stock would need to exceed $50 a share for the U.S. government to break even on the rescue. But the U.S. Treasury would consider selling its stake once shares top $30, near to the $33 price in GM’s 2010 initial public offering, people familiar with the situation said.

Fiat SpA, the Italian carmaker that controls Chrysler Group LLC, forecast 2012 profit will surge as much as 88 percent as the American carmaker’s earnings rise.

Earnings before interest, taxes and one-time items, which Fiat calls trading profit, will increase this year to between 3.8 billion euros ($5 billion) and 4.5 billion euros from 2.39 billion euros in 2011, the Turin, Italy-based carmaker said in a statement today. That compares with a 3.24 billion-euro estimate for next year from 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Sergio Marchionne, chief executive officer of both automakers, is counting on Chrysler to propel growth at Fiat, whose volume brands lost about 500 million euros in Europe last year as the region’s debt crisis causes consumers to hold back on purchases. Chrysler today reported U.S. deliveries surged 44 percent in January, the 22nd straight monthly year-on-year gain.

“Marchionne aims to aggressively capitalize on the spectacular recovery of the U.S. car market,” said Wolfram Mrowetz, chairman of investment firm Alisei SIM in Milan, who bought Fiat shares earlier this week.

“He’s betting on Chrysler sales as Europe remains a problem.”

Fiat rose 23 cents, or 5 percent, to 4.82 euros, the most since Jan. 16, in Milan trading today. The shares have gained 36 percent in 2012, valuing the carmaker at 6.06 billion euros.

The group’s fourth-quarter trading profit more than doubled to 765 million euros, beating an average estimate of 16 analysts for profit to reach 759 million euros. Revenue also more than doubled to 19.6 billion euros.

Chrysler, which has been consolidated into Fiat’s results since June, reported trading profit last quarter of 639 million euros, offsetting a 15 million-euro loss at Fiat and its other European volume car brands. Super-car marque Ferrari’s profit slipped 11 percent to 100 million euros. Net income in 2011 for the group more than doubled to 1.33 billion euros.

“All of it” came from the American carmaker, the CEO said today of last year’s net income. “I have absolutely no intention of supporting that nonsensical arrangement. That’s the definition of what I call an unhappy marriage.”

Marchionne, who aims to merge Fiat with Chrysler by 2015 and boost revenue to more than 100 billion euros in 2014, is looking for a third partner in Europe to increase efficiencies and cut development costs in an effort to end the losses. Marchione said today he hasn’t start yet any discussion with potential partners.

“Fiat’s loss in the automotive business in the fourth quarter comes as a shock to us,” said Erich Hauser, a Credit Suisse analyst in London who’s ranked No. 1 by Bloomberg among analysts who cover Fiat based.

“The guidance for 2012 operating profit is outlandish,” said Hauser, who confirmed his “sell” rating on the shares.

Fiat, which owns 58.5 percent of Chrysler, is willing to participate in an industry consolidation in Europe to compete with Volkswagen AG, the region’s biggest carmaker, Marchionne said last month. Fiat led a decline in auto sales in Europe last year with a 12 percent slump to 947,786 vehicles, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association in Brussels.

Marchionne said today that the purchase of the 41.5 percent Chrysler stake owned by the United Auto Workers union’s retiree health-care trust will be discussed in the second half.

Net debt at the end of 2011 rose to 5.5 billion euros from 500 million euros after Fiat incorporated Chrysler’s debt, the carmaker said today. Fiat expects debt to reach as much as 6 billion euros in 2012.

“Net debt is a key concern,” Stuart Pearson, a Morgan Stanley analyst in London, said in a note to investors Jan. 24 “The deep value within Fiat-Chrysler has always been in the terminal value of a merged and restructured organization. Unfortunately, 2012 is likely to see a step backwards from this goal if cash concerns slow essential investment.”

To create the necessary car-making efficiencies, automotive groups need to build from 8 million to 10 million vehicles a year, Marchionne, 59, said in January in Detroit. Currently only General Motors Co., Volkswagen and Toyota Motor Corp. are producing at or near that level. Fiat and Chrysler sold about half that figure last year.

Marchionne’s renewed interest in teaming up with another company comes as he considers lowering his 2014 sales target to 5.7 million cars from a previous forecast of 5.9 million. Fiat may globally lose 500,000 vehicle sales annually as a result of the European debt crisis, he said last month. Fiat and Chrysler deliveries will total about 4.9 million autos in 2014, based on the average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

For the first time since the global economic crisis brought the American automobile industry to its knees in 2008, all three Detroit automakers appear poised to post a profit.

Ford Motor Co., the strongest of Detroit’s Big Three and the only one to make it through the crisis without a taxpayer bailout, is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings today. All indications from the company and analysts are that it will be Ford’s 10th consecutive profitable quarter, reported The Detroit News.

Chrysler Group LLC is due to report its results Friday. The Auburn Hills automaker last reported a quarterly profit in the first quarter of 2011.

General Motors Co. is slated to release its third-quarter results Nov. 9. It is expected to report a profit.

With three new national contracts with the United Auto Workers that preserve competitive gains made in tougher times — including Chrysler, which appeared Tuesday to have won ratification of its agreement with the UAW — America’s automakers seem to be making the most of their new lease on life.

“It’s the reincarnation of the industry,” said analyst Michael Robinet of IHS Global Insight. “It’s a new focus on content — delivering to the customer — and bottom-line profitability, versus yesteryear, which was about keeping your labor pool busy at all costs and expanding your top line with little focus on your bottom line.”

Last week, two ratings agencies raised Ford’s debt to one notch below investment grade. That was partly a result of the new national contract the company negotiated with the UAW, but also a testament to progress the company continues to make.

“The upgrades to Ford’s ratings reflect the automaker’s strong financial performance and continued debt reduction through the first nine months of 2011,” Fitch Ratings wrote Oct. 20. “Fitch expects slowly strengthening global automotive demand and Ford’s competitive product portfolio to drive continued (free cash flow) strength.”

Fitch said Ford’s credit rating could be restored to investment grade within the next year. That is significant, because once two of the three major ratings agencies return Ford to investment grade, the Dearborn automaker will be able to redeem all of its U.S. assets — including the Blue Oval itself — which were pledged as collateral for the $23.6 billion it borrowed in late 2006 to fund CEO Alan Mulally’s turnaround plan.

To achieve that, Ford needs to continue to chisel away at debt, which stood at $14 billion at the end of June.

Ford investors are looking for a resumption of dividend payments, suspended five years ago.

Last week, Ford Chief Financial Officer Lewis Booth said dividends could be restored prior to achieving investment-grade status. Barclays Capital analyst Brian Johnson expects Ford to pay a dividend of 36 cents next year, increasing to 55 cents by 2015.

At Chrysler, the big news will be the earnings themselves. Chrysler posted a profit of $116 million in the first quarter of 2011, the first since it was taken over by Italy’s Fiat SpA as part of a 2009 bailout deal brokered by the Obama administration.

The company said it made money in the second quarter, but used all that cash to pay back loans from the U.S. and Canadian governments. Now Fiat, which is struggling because of weak sales in its home market and declining demand in key overseas markets like Brazil, needs Chrysler to begin generating positive cash flow.

Speaking in Rome on Tuesday, Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne promised it would.

“Chrysler is giving a fundamental contribution to Fiat’s profits as it takes advantage of the improved U.S. and Canadian markets,” he said. “It is running at almost double the speed compared with Fiat.”

Recently, analysts have expressed concern that Chrysler could drag down Fiat. But Marchionne disputed that.

“Neither Fiat nor Chrysler would have made it alone in the long run,” he said. “Fiat was too small, too penalized by the European business model to have some chance of success. Together, in 2011, we will sell 4.2 million cars, and we’ll become the fifth-biggest carmaker in the world. By 2014, we will sell 5.9 million cars.”

General Motors has posted six straight quarters of profits since emerging from bankruptcy two years ago.

But GM is not only posting big profits. It is also flush with cash. The company ended the second quarter this year with $39.7 billion in liquidity. The biggest question facing the Detroit-based carmaker is what to do with it all.

Analysts have suggested that GM might use its large cash reserves to buy back some of the U.S. government’s remaining stake in the company.

American taxpayers became the largest owners of GM stock after giving the company $49.5 billion in 2009. The federal government sold off 412 million shares following the company’s initial public offering last year, but the Treasury Department still holds 500 million shares — an overhand that some analysts say is spooking investors and weighing down GM’s share price.

They say GM could remedy that by buying back some of those shares. CEO Dan Akerson was asked about that in a June interview with The Detroit News, but he declined to comment on the suggestion.