IRVINE — Kelley Blue Book predicated yesterday that January new-vehicle sales will fall 30 percent below the December high, and end the month at 900,000 units sold. This equates to a 13.2 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR).

On a year-over-year basis, 900,000 units would market a nearly 10 percent increase from last January. For the year, KBB forecasts new-vehicle sales to surpass 13.3 million units this year, a predication that’s based on its expectations that the U.S. economy will continue its recovery at a moderate pace. The vehicle information sites also expects rising demand from consumers to replace their aging vehicles, reported F&I and Showroom magazine.

“Our analysts have produced a regression model that explores unemployment, housing, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns to assist with our sales forecast for the year,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for KBB. “Given current market conditions and our expectations for 2012, we believe sales will continue to improve at a conservative pace in 2012.”

Improving unemployment conditions and heightened demand stemming from the increasing age of vehicles is expected to help drive sales in 2012, according to KBB. “The more comprehensive measure of unemployment provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U6, which includes part-time workers that would prefer to work full time and marginally attached workers, is still at 15.2 percent,” Gutierrez said. “While this is lower than the 15.6 percent of November, it is still quite high overall.”

Consumer confidence and housing are projected to remain relatively stable through 2012 and will not influence sales significantly, according to KBB. If current projections hold true, 2012 will be another solid year for manufacturers, but significant downside risks that could slow down the momentum of the sales recovery remains.

“We remain especially concerned about the ongoing European debt crisis and the heightened tensions with Iran as potential events that could derail the current U.S. vehicle sales recovery,” Gutierrez said. “The European debt crisis has been of particular concern in recent weeks due to the debt rating downgrade of France, Portugal, Italy, and other European economies, leading to concerns for their ability to generate interest in future bond offerings.”

The site’s analysts project that General Motors, Ford and Toyota to lead new-vehicle sales in January, citing the brands’ recent redesigns. “General Motors will be led by strong performances from the Chevrolet Silverado, the hot-selling compact Cruze, and the Equinox crossover, while later in the year a new redesign for the Chevrolet Malibu also will help boost sales for GM,” Gutierrez said.

Ford will look to the redesigned Focus, Fiesta and F-150, to drive sales in January, Gutierrez added. The 2013 Escape and Fusion redesign also will help keep Ford’s sales momentum strong. After losing market share from recalls in 2010 and the inventory shortages resulting from the earthquake in Japan in 2011, Toyota will look to the redesigned Yaris, Camry and Prius V to inflate sales in January.

“In January, we are currently projecting GM and Ford to maintain 18.8 and 16.1 percent share, respectively,” Gutierrez said. “Although GM and Ford will lead sales overall, Toyota isn’t too far behind in third place and they will likely push to regain share throughout 2012.”

Money-losing Volkswagen AG subsidiary Seat expects to see a strong rise in its new-car sales this year, brand boss James Muir told Automotive News Europe.

“We want to increase our 340,000 unit sales from last year – by 8 to 10 percent – thanks to existing models. We aim to sell 45,000 units of the Ibiza ST (station wagon) this year. And the Alhambra already is well above plan so we expect a full-year volume of 20,000 units. This proves that our brand is gaining strength,” said Muir, who took over as head of the Spanish automaker in 2009.

Seat expects further growth in 2012, which is when it will start a new-model offensive. “We will launch four new cars: the new Leon, a totally new entry-level model, a four-door sedan and a major Ibiza face-lift.”

To meet the rising demand, Seat plans to boost the size of its work force. “We employ 13,500 people globally and have to start recruiting again. Before the end of the year, we will hire 300 to 800 new employees,” Muir said.

He said that increase is very significant in the automaker’s home market of Spain, where the unemployment rate is 20 percent.

Seat is pursuing even more ambitious goals as part of parent VW Group’s Strategy 2018. By that year Muir wants Seat’s global unit sales to more than double to 800,000 units, and he wants the automaker to achieve a 15 percent return on investment. Seat reported a 311 million euro loss in 2010. Seat Chairman Francisco Javier Garcia Sanz says the automaker will post a profit again in 2013.

FRANKFURT – BMW AG has forecast a modest rise in car sales this year and confirmed it expected a 2009 pretax profit despite the global economic crisis, Reuters reported.

While some analysts welcome the sales figures for 2009 and see upside to the company’s targets, others expect continuing pressure on the company’s profit margins and outlook as the car sector remains vulnerable due to the global economic crisis.

“Revenues have surprised positively. We see our positive case for BMW confirmed,” Equinet analyst Tim Schuldt wrote, keeping a “buy” rating on the stock.

BMW said its 2009 sales came in at 50.68 billion euros ($71.15 billion), exceeding the DZ Bank estimate of 48.35 billion euros.

Analysts at Citigroup also keep a “buy” rating on BMW. They argued that the launch of the new 5-series medium-premium sedan in 2010 could add positive momentum to the current consensus for revenue growth of 5 percent.

DZ Bank analyst Michael Punzet remains skeptical on the company despite revenue coming in above his expectations, keeping a “sell” rating on the stock.

“Without any more details, especially on sales and earnings division break down we see no reason to change our skeptical view on premium manufacturers and therefore confirm our sell recommendation on BMW,” Punzet wrote.

Analysts at Exane BNP Paribas also remain cautious on the stock, hiking their price target but sticking to their “underperform” rating.

“We remain skeptical about the aggressive 2012 group margin target,” the Exane analysts wrote.

BMW aims to achieve an earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin of 8 percent to 10 percent in the automobile segment by 2012.

U.S. auto sales will rise 20 percent in 2010, buoyed by pent-up demand and stronger credit markets, as the industry starts recovering from its worst year in almost three decades, reported Bloomberg News.

Deliveries will climb to 12.4 million from 10.3 million in 2008, the Ann Arbor, Mich.-based Center for Automotive Research said. U.S. sales were 13.2 million last year, after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007.

“No recession has ever been this long in terms of cumulative job loss,” Sean McAlinden, CAR’s chief economist, said at a briefing in Ypsilanti, Mich. “Will we ever see the 17 million-sales levels we saw a few years ago? No, that was truly an automotive sales bubble.”

The forecast exceeded four projections by consultants and analysts for domestic industry deliveries in a range of 11.3 million to 11.8 million light vehicles. Sales at those levels would enable General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC to make money in the U.S. based on their plans to slash expenses.

Both automakers reorganized in bankruptcy this year. Chrysler has said it expects to break even in 2010 with industry sales of 11 million units and a 10 percent market share. In March, GM gave a target of paring expenses to the point where it could break even with industry volume at 10.5 million units.

GM and Chrysler “have done enough cost reductions to break even in North America,” McAlinden said. He said Detroit-based GM probably won’t reach that goal in 2010 because it still has 6,000 workers on furlough, inflating its costs.

BANDON, Ore. – A growing percentage of new-car sales are going to prime-credit customers as banks and other financial institutions look for safer bets, according to CNW Marketing Research.

In the preliminary November data, 85.7 percent of those who purchased a car had prime credit — the highest rate since December 2008. And while near-prime held within a narrow band between 10 and 12 percent of buyers, the subprime shopper’s chance of getting a loan shrunk dramatically.

In July of 2006, roughly 16 percent of all new-car sales went to customers who had subprime credit scores. In November of this year, the figure stood at about 3 percent after hitting a 2009 high of 8.4 percent in April.

Financial institutions are trying to scrub their books of anything or anyone who could constitute a bad risk,” wrote the market research firm. “And part of the decline can be traced to consumer sentiment and business psyche.

“There is a definite and profitable market for subprime paper,” CNW added. “Just don’t expect major banks to pay it much heed any time soon. They have their own problems.”