Toyota Motor Corp., buoyed by an incentive campaign, may report a 30 percent jump in U.S. sales in March after recalls of millions of vehicles damped deliveries for two months, according to Edmunds.com.

No-interest loans for as long as five years and discounted leases on most Toyota brand models from the world’s largest automaker are helping drive the rebound from year-earlier levels, Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl said by phone, Bloomberg.com reported.

The incentives and the “huge reservoir of goodwill” Toyota has built up over the years are limiting fallout from global recalls of more than 8 million cars, Anwyl said. Santa Monica, California-based Edmunds.com tracks pricing and consumer behavior on its car-information Web site.

Spending on incentives may add as much as 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in costs for Toyota City, Japan-based Toyota, Kohei Takahashi, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a March 2 report. Other recall-related costs may total 315 billion yen through May 2011, and litigation settlements may cost about 100 billion yen, he said.

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com believes Toyota’s announcements of zero-percent financing and special lease deals are being very well received because of a sharp rise in purchase intent by site visitors, Auto Remarketing reported.

Officials indicated that the incentive offerings generated nearly a 40-percent spike in purchase interest when measured over a 48-hour period.

Comparing recent history, the increase is significant. In January, Edmunds.com said Toyota’s purchase intent averaged a little more than 13 percent and then fell to as low as 9.7 percent because of recall announcements.
On Monday, site officials found that Toyota purchase intent had recovered to 13 percent. On Tuesday when the incentives program was revealed, they spotted that Toyota purchase intent soared to 18 percent — a 14-month high on Edmunds.com.

Apparently, slightly later announcements of zero-percent financing by Chrysler and General Motors didn’t have the same effect, according to executives. 

In fact, Edmunds.com indicated that Chrysler purchase intent decreased from 3.3 percent to 2.9 percent, and GM purchase intent rose just slightly from 12.6 percent to 12.7 percent.

“Because of the Toyota recall, people have been closely watching the company’s moves, and many were ready to take action upon hearing the announcement of this highly anticipated incentives program,” explained Edmunds.com senior analyst David Tompkins.

“Chrysler and GM didn’t get quite as much attention for two main reasons: historically — such as in the Keep America Rolling campaign in 2001 — followers never get the same level of attention that the initiators do, and, second, this type of announcement is far more rare for Toyota,” Tompkins continued.

George Kang, another senior analyst at Edmunds.com, also offered his perspective on the attention the Toyota incentives sparked.

“The Toyota recall saga allowed other automakers to snag some market share, and now Toyota wants it back,” Kang interjected.

“Despite their ongoing challenges, the company still has plenty of brand strength and consumer confidence,” Kang added.

Edmunds.com pointed out that purchase intent measures actual buyer interest reflected by pricing research, vehicle configuration and other focused steps. Officials maintain that purchase intent has a strong correlation to sales.

They went on to note that automaker purchase intent reflects share of total Edmunds.com traffic engaged in purchase intent activity, while model-level data reflects share of Edmunds.com traffic engaged in purchase intent activity within the indicated model’s segment.

Toyota Motor Corp.’s recalls and snowstorms across the U.S. may have slowed the rebound in auto sales in February, keeping some shoppers out of showrooms and dashing the industry’s hopes for bigger gains, Bloomberg reported.

Toyota’s deliveries probably fell 10 percent to drag the company to its lowest U.S. market share since 2005, researcher Edmunds.com said. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. likely posted increases of 20 percent and 33 percent, based on the average of 5 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

February provided automakers with easy comparisons from a year earlier, when the recession was still deepening. The results being reported tomorrow may be weak enough to raise questions about the U.S. market’s health after a streak of sales increases that began in November.

“While February sales have improved from a year ago, the pace of the recovery has hit a speed bump,” said Jeff Schuster, forecasting chief at J.D. Power & Associates in Troy, Michigan. “Because of the Toyota recall, buyers are sitting on the sidelines. The severe storms in February also had some impact.”

The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate for cars and light trucks may have reached 10.3 million, the average of 8 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be a fourth straight gain from a year earlier. The February 2009 pace was 9.1 million, the lowest since 1981.

“Based on sales of recent months, February sales should have been higher,” said Jessica Caldwell, director of industry analysis for Santa Monica, California-based Edmunds.com.

Of the seven largest automakers in the U.S., only Toyota and Chrysler Group LLC probably will post February sales declines, according to Edmunds.com and the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. GM, Ford, Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. will have increases.

A monthly drop for Toyota would be the second in a row for the Toyota City, Japan-based automaker, which recalled about 8 million vehicles globally for defects linked to unintended acceleration and suspended U.S. sales of eight models, including Camry and Corolla sedans, starting Jan. 26. Dealers were able to resume the sales once repairs are made.

Edmunds.com estimated that the 10 percent slide in Toyota’s U.S. sales would cut its market share to 12.6 percent. TrueCar.com, another Santa Monica-based researcher, projected a 27 percent drop in deliveries by the world’s largest automaker.

Despite Toyota’s recall woes and snowy weather covering most of the country, February vehicle sales will be higher this February than last year’s dismal lows and also higher than January’s numbers, Edmunds.com forecasts. Still, February sales weren’t as strong as many had hoped or expected.

February sales reports from manufacturers, to be posted Tuesday, also will show who made sales and share gains at Toyota’s expense. Toyota’s sales will be about even with January and down about 10 percent from a year ago. Its market share likely will fall to 12.6 percent, its lowest level since 2005.

In contrast, Hyundai and Nissan will post their highest U.S. market shares ever, Edmunds.com predicts. Ford’s share increased, while market share for General Motors and Chrysler dropped.

Critics have charged that the U.S. government is picking on Toyota because it owns stakes in GM and Chrysler as a result of last year’s bankruptcies. However, Edmunds.com expects market share for both domestic auto companies to drop.

Ford, which steered clear of bankruptcy and did not take government funding, will see a boost in sales and market share, Edmunds.com predicts. Ford will handily outsell Toyota again this month as it did in January. Ford is well positioned to surpass Toyota in total sales for the year, something it hasn’t done since 2006.

Chrysler had another bad month as it awaits a replenishment of its new product pipeline at year’s end. Not only did Honda outsell Chrysler again this month as it has of late, but Nissan did as well, according to Edmunds.com’s forecast. Chrysler looks to have barely eked out a lead over No. 7 ranked Hyundai in February.

Analysts predict Toyota Motor Corp.’s big recalls could cost the Japanese automaker a point of market share or more this year, with Ford Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. benefiting the most from Toyota’s troubles, reported The Detroit News.

“It now seems clear that Ford will overtake Toyota to reclaim its position as the second biggest automaker in the U.S. market,” said Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at automotive research firm Edmunds.com.

Ford lost its longtime U.S. second-place ranking in 2008.

Edmunds expects Toyota’s U.S. market share to fall this year to 16.45 percent from 17 percent in 2009. Prior to the Jan. 21 recall of 2.3 million Toyota vehicles to fix accelerator pedals that could stick, Edmunds forecast its share would rise to 17.6 percent.

Nissan Motor Co., South Korea’s fast-growing Hyundai Motor Co. and General Motors Co. also are likely to take some of Toyota’s lost sales, analysts said.

“This recall crisis will probably cost Toyota at least one percentage point of market share in the U.S.,” said Jesse Toprak, an analyst at pricing firm TrueCar.com. He estimates Toyota’s share this year will fall to 16 percent.

Based on 2009 sales, a point of market share represents just over 100,000 light vehicles.

Toyota officials say the recalls are affecting sales but it’s too early for the company to assess the full-year impact.

Deutsche Bank analyst Kurt Sanger said the loss of one point of share would cost the company between $900 million and $1 billion in annual pre-tax earnings.

Sanger’s estimate did not include the effects of declining pricing power resulting from damage to the Toyota brand and higher discounts this year.

Most analysts estimate Toyota’s incentives will rise to $2,000 per vehicle, on average, from about $1,400 last year.

Toyota dealers are offering cash, loyalty coupons of around $500, and low financing rates to retain customers. But analysts say Detroit rivals have increased incentives even more to capture prospective Toyota customers.

Toyota’s market share is expected to drop dramatically in February because the company can’t sell recalled models until pedals have been checked and repaired.

Depending on how fast its U.S. dealers can make the repairs, Toyota could lose anywhere from three to nine points of market share this month, Toprak said.

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Edmunds.com analysts predict that January’s new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 701,000 units, and that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) will be 10.7 million, down from 11.2 in December 2009.

This sales forecast represents a 7.1 percent increase from January 2009 but a 31.7 percent decrease from December 2009, according to Edmunds.com. January 2010 had 24 selling days, two less than last January. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 16.0 percent from January 2009. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

“December is generally one of the strongest sales months of the year, while January is typically one of the weakest, and that held true this season,” said Jessica Caldwell, director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. “This month’s sales were buoyed by hefty hikes in fleet sales.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 47.2 percent in January 2010, up from 43.4 percent in January 2009 and up from 46.2 percent in December 2009.

“Toyota’s market share is likely to drop to 14.7 percent in January; the last time it was that low was in March 2006 when its share was 14.2 percent of U.S. sales. In contrast, Ford is expected to have its best month for market share since May 2006. Edmunds.com forecasts Ford’s share at 18.0 percent. The last time it was that high was in May 2006 at 18.4 percent,” noted Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs.

A detailed forecast is available at Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com.